FillWindow · California
One call a week: fill now, or wait. Built on the official EIA California retail price series and graded against a no change baseline.
California, week of 2026-08-03
NO STRONG SIGNAL
$5.50 now. The expected move is inside our own margin of error, so we are not calling a direction this week.
Live record: 1 of 1 calls right since going live
Last call ✓ week of 2026-08-03: predicted $5.62, actual $5.50
76% directional over 150 held-out weeks · see every forecast →
Free · no card · one email a week.
Every call we have issued, with its grade once the print landed, is on the evidence page. Each week also has its own permanent link.
The US Energy Information Administration surveys retail prices every Monday and publishes that week's figure the same afternoon. That is why FillWindow makes one call a week rather than a daily one: a weekly survey is the finest thing a forecast can honestly be checked against.
The call at the top of this page answers that for the current week. When the model does not beat a simple no change baseline, or the move it predicts is smaller than its own typical error, the page says there is no strong signal rather than guessing a direction.
The accuracy section on this page is computed from a forward only backtest on this region's own price history, shown next to the baseline it has to beat. Nothing on this page is a hardcoded figure.
Source: EMM_EPMR_PTE_SCA_DPG, US EIA.